Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Predicted 3% To 11.5% Net Gains For 10 Healthcare Dogs By June 2018
Six of ten top dividend-yielding Healthcare dogs were verified as being among the top 10 of 30 gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target prices (As tinted gray in the chart above). So, this yield-based forecast for Healthcare dogs as graded by Wall St. wizards was 60% accurate.
Ten probable profit-generating trades were revealed in YCharts for June 2018:
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) was projected to net $115.76, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) was projected to net $113.37, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from 23 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% more than the market as a whole.
Merck & Co. (NYSE:MRK) netted $61.31, based on mean target price estimates from 22 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.
Medical Facilities (OTCPK:MFCSF) was projected to net $54.38, based just on dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% less than the market as a whole.
Sanofi (NYSE:SNY) was projected to net $42.29, based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from five brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% less than the market as a whole.
Life Healthcare Group (OTCPK:LTGHY) was projected to net $39.11, based on no target estimates from analysts, just dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% less than the market as a whole.
Rhoen Klinikum (OTCPK:RKAGY) was projected to net $37.57, based on no mean target price estimate, just the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 97% less than the market as a whole.
AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) was projected to net $36.64, based on target price estimates from 22 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 54% more than the market as a whole.
Anthem (NYSE:ANTM) was projected to net $30.18, based on dividends alone, less broker fees. A beta number was not available for ANTM.
National Research (NASDAQ:NRCIB) was projected to net $30.09, based on dividends, with no target price estimates from analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 86% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 5.6% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 Healthcare dog stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 29% less than the market as a whole.
Actionable Conclusions (11 & 12): (Bear Alerts) Analysts Anticipate Two Healthcare Dogs To Lose 3.8% & 18.3% By June 2018
The probable losing trades revealed by YCharts for 2018 were:
AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) projected a loss of $38.49 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from six analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% less than the market as a whole.
Meridian Bioscience (NASDAQ:VIVO) projected a loss of $182.94 based on dividend and a median target price estimate from seven analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.
Average net loss in price plus dividend was 11.07% on $2k invested as $1k in each of these two “Safer” dividend Healthcare losing dogs. This loss estimate was subject to average volatility 11% less than the market as a whole.
Top 50 Healthcare Dogs By Yield Covered All 10 Sector Constituent Industries For June
Yield (dividend/price) results from YCharts June 26 verified by Yahoo Finance for 50 stocks from 10 sector industries led to the actionable conclusions in this article.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) Paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where, and (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are in fact best called “underdogs”.
Top 50 June Healthcare Sector Dogs By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (13-22): Dog Metrics Diagnosed 10 Top Dividend Healthcare Stocks By Yield
Top 10 Healthcare sector dogs selected 6/26/17 by yield represented six of ten constituent industries. Top yielding healthcare stock, Medical Facilities  was one of three medical care industry representatives. The other medical care industry dogs placed second, and third, Life Healthcare Group , and Rhoen Klinikum .
Fourth place was occupied by the first of three drug manufacturers – major AstraZeneca ; the others placed eighth and ninth, GlaxoSmithKline (OTCPK:GLAXF)  and GSK .
One healthcare plan placed fifth by yield, Anthem . A lone diagnostics and research industry representative was sixth, National Research . Seventh place went to the lone long-term care facilities representative, Extendicare (OTCPK:EXETF) .
Finally, in 10th by yield, one from drug manufacturers – specialty & generic Hypermarcas (OTCPK:HYPMY)  – completed the top ten June Healthcare top dogs by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: (23) Top Six Healthcare Dogs Showed 1.08% To 9.58% Upsides For June 2018; (24) Downside From Lowest One Was -19.49%.
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield “dog” metrics, analyst mean price target estimates provided another tool to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusions: Wall St. Wizards Expected (25) A 0.6% Median Target Price Upside And (26) A 3.2% Net Gain From 30 Healthcare Upside Dogs Come June 2018
Top 30 Healthcare stocks were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of June 26, 2017, and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2018.
A hypothetical $1,000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price gauged the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends, less broker fees, as of 2018.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those 10 stocks created data points for 2017. Projections based on estimated dividend amounts from $1,000 invested in the 10 stocks and aggregate one-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2018 data points green for price and blue for dividend.
YChart analysts’ median one-year targets projected a 0.18% higher dividend from $10k invested as $1k in 10 dogs in this group while aggregate single share price for those 10 was projected to increase by 0.4% in the coming year. Notice, price greater than dividend in the current and coming year shows an overbought condition for the top 30 Healthcare yield dogs.
The number of analysts contributing to the target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were generally not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column of the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock’s price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock’s movement opposite of market direction.
Analysts Forecast A 9.5% Advantage For Five Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Healthcare Stocks To June 2018
Ten top Healthcare dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top 10 Healthcare dogs selected 6/26/17 showing the highest dividend yields represented six of ten industries constituting the sector.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted Five Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Healthcare Dogs Delivering (27) 4.43% Vs. (28) 4.05% Net Gains By All Ten By June 2018
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Financial Services kennel by yield were predicted by analyst one-year targets to deliver 9.5% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all of those ten. The eighth lowest priced Healthcare top yield dog, GlaxoSmithKline, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 11.58%.
The five lowest-priced Healthcare top yield dogs for June 26 were: Extendicare; Life Healthcare Group; Hypermarcas; Medical Facilities; and Rhoen Klinikum, with prices ranging from $7.76 to $13.62.
Five higher-priced Healthcare dogs for May 17 were: GlaxoSmithKline; AstraZeneca; GSK; Indivior (OTCPK:INVVY); National Research; and Anthem, whose prices ranged from $21.55 to $52.31.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.
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Suggest a favorite stock for the next crowd-sourced follower favorite article in July. Message me with your favorite stock ticker, and I will include it in that article. Just send the ticker symbol for your favorite dividend stock (or two) by clicking on the envelope icon next to my name under the headline of this article, or comment in the comments section below. Leave your top ticker, and always remember, Root for the Underdog.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Healthcare dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo: nmariettavetclinc.com
Disclosure: I am/we are long PFE.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Healthcare Has GlaxoSmithKline As Top Dog By Gains In June